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Gold Market Commentary  Report for 7/13/2010

After coming alive off the early morning lows, the August gold contract was unable to hold all of the morning gains. In the end seeing gold track higher in apparent sync with the equity market would seem to suggest that gold was tracking its physical commodity market fundamentals. Some players suggested that a widening of the US trade deficit to 18 month highs was another issue responsible for the Gold rally today as a spiraling trade deficit problem could undermine the Dollar and in turn raise the flight to quality status of gold and other flight to quality instruments.

Silver Market Analysis  Report for 7/13/2010

The silver market also managed a very impressive rally off its early morning lows but it also seemed to lose some upside momentum in the $18.25 and $18.35 trading range. US silver imports in May were up 3.2%, while US silver exports in May were up sharply on a year over year basis but the impact of that information is not a direct in line influence on silver prices in the current environment. In the end, the bull camp in silver had to be embracing the US trade deficit or it was simply benefiting from broad based positive physical commodity market fundamentals.

After reading the gold and silver analysis, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.   Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

This recap is reported by Andy WaldockAndy Waldock circulates this commentary.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, asset manager, trader, analyst and brokerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his relatives in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets may not be advisable for all investors due to the high degree of leverage.  There is considerable risk in investing in commodity futures.  If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting  on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.

The daily commentaries provide a review of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day.  CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, silver and gold.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Corn Market Review for 7/12/2010

September Corn ended down 3 3/4 at 379 3/4, 6 1/4 off the high and 1 up from the low. December Corn settled down 3 1/2 at 391 3/4. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high.

December corn saw 2-sided trade overnight before selling off to start the day session. This took the December contract to below Friday’s lows into early mid session, and the market returned to just above the early lows prior to the close. Traders said that the recent moderation in temperatures in the Midwest and welcome rains in the eastern Corn Belt and into the mid southhelped to pressure the market today along with a moderately higher dollar and lower crude oil. However, forecasts call for warmer weather across much of the Midwest starting on Wednesday. Longer term forecasts are now calling for a dome of very hot air to settle in over the central and southern Plains and into the central Midwest by next Tuesday or Wednesday, bringing well above normal temperatures for the following week. One forecaster indicated that next week’s pattern resembles the conditions during summer drought of 1983. The USDA announced a sale of 152,400 tonnes of US corn to an unknown destination this morning for delivery during the 2010/11 crop marketing year. Traders indicate that the good-to-excellent quality rating for corn may be unchanged to slightly lower on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report from the USDA after a drop of 2% in the good-to excellent rating last week and a 4% drop from two weeks earlier. This week’s export inspections for corn were 34.519 million bushels, down from 40.774 million last week. Inspections need to average 49.810 million each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10.

September Rice finished down 0.185 at 9.8, equal to the low and equal to the high.

Wheat Market Commentary Report for 7/12/2010

September Wheat closed down 2 1/4 at 535 3/4, 6 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat finished 2 1/4 at 564 1/4. This was 2 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high.

December wheat traded on both sides of yesterday’s close throughout the overnight and day sessions before finishing near the lows of the day. The December contract traded inside the previous day’s range for the second day in a row. Traders said that a higher dollar and weakness in key commodities brought selling pressure to wheat today. Algeria’s agriculture minister said today that Algeria’s durum crop is expected to be good, but that the soft red crop is only expected to be average. Cash prices for hard red winter wheat were steady to start the week as farmer selling has tailed off into the last stages of harvest. This week’s export inspections for wheat were 14.129 million bushels, down from 16.883 million last week. Inspections need to average 19.528 million each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for the 2010/11 crop marketing year.

December Oats closed down 11 at 260 1/4. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 11 off the high.

Soybean Complex Market Review Recap for 7/12/2010

August Soybeans closed up 4 1/2 at 997 3/4, 11 1/4 off the high and 11 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans finished down 2 1/4 at 951. This was 6 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high. 

August Soybean Oil settled  up 0.11 at 37.61, 0.16 off the high and 0.41 up from the low.

August Soymeal settled down 0.1 at 300.8. This was 2.8 up from the low and 4.0 off the high.

July soybeans posted a modest gain on the day while November soybeans traded marginally lower. The July contract gained for the 8thstraight session today on tight cash markets, which traders indicate has also been reflected in zero deliveries against the July contract so far in the delivery period. July meal also gained on deferred contracts today and traders said that this helped to pull soy oil fractionally higher into early afternoon. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions in the Midwest from Wednesday through Friday along with warmer temperatures. Showers fell overnight and into this morning in the Ohio Valley/Kentucky area and into parts of Ohio. This was considered beneficial. Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin also saw showers, although this was less beneficial than the rains in the east and mid south. Traders said that early pressure came from a sharp drop in crude oil and a moderate sell off in gold and equities along with modest gains in the dollar. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 6.515 million bushels, up from 3.011 million last week. Inspections need to average 11.647 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for the 2009/10 crop marketing year.

With today’s analysis talking about weather, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

This blog is publicized by Andy Waldock.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his relatives, or his clients in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading  may not be appropriate for all investors.  Investing in the commodity futures could result in substantial risk.  If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting  on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.

The daily commentaries provide a review of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a review of any reports released that day, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day.  Market commentaries for soybeans, corn, wheat, silver and gold are provided by CME Group.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

Gold and silver have exploded in recent years.  The contributing factors of low interest rates, economic doubt, global fear and pending inflation have done their share to increase precious metals’ outsized gains relative to the stock market. Gold has rallied more than 150% over the last five years while the broad stock indexes are all flat to lower, depending on the day. Silver, for its part, has nearly doubled in the last five years. Given our still historic low interest rates and the growing economic trouble overseas as well as our ballooning governmental budget deficit, it’s reasonable to believe that the forces behind this trend continue to remain intact. The question has changed from, “Should I be invested in precious metals,” to “What’s the most cost effective way to maintain a presence in precious metals.”

The boom in the precious metals market has brought with it the familiar hype of the gold bugs. It has also fostered the invention of precious metal Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) and TV advertisements cash for gold.  Commodity futures markets have also benefited from the added attention being paid to gold.  Each of these has a place in the marketplace and each has a vested interest in advertising their product as the one that’s best suited to your needs. On the other hand, if you are referring  to efficient portfolio allocation method and seek to include ownership of precious metals as a part of your portfolio diversification plan, the best bang for your buck is through commodity exchange traded contracts which are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and guaranteed by their appropriate exchange.

The market sectors mentioned above can be lumped into two categories: small speculators and investors.  Gold bugs and cash for gold are for people with left over jewelry, some family heirlooms and gold coins like American Eagles or South African Krugerrands.  Normally, this type of gold ownership sell side biased.  This means owners of collections or small pieces are keeping an eye on price and hoping to sell when they think the market has peaked. When they bring their physical collections to market, they will end up at the coin shops, pawn shops, cash for gold, or their local jewelry shop. The willing buyers are always waiting and ready to pay below market value for collections that may have taken a lifetime to accumulate.  Upon recent survey of the available outlets, prices to be paid were usually $40 per oz under market value for gold and $.30 per oz under market value for silver. Those on the buy side of this equation, looking to add to their private physical collections will find themselves paying up $30 – $50 per oz over market value in gold and up to $1.20 over per oz in silver.  Therefore, small speculators in the physical precious metals market may lose more than 10% of the value of their collection in the buying and selling process.

Passive investment in the precious metals can be done in two ways, ETF’s and commodity exchange traded products.  The benefits of ETF’s are that the amount to be invested can be determined beforehand and the investor can pick their own allocation, even if that amount is less than the price of one ounce of gold. The downside is these ETF’s usually underperform the actual market they are designed to track. Typically, one would anticipate a dollar for dollar rise and fall between the price of the metal and the value of the account.  However, due to advertising, administrative fees, expenses, incentive fees, cost of acquisition, etc, the longer the ETF trades, the further behind the actual price they fall. Therefore, it is possible to lose money in a flat market, or realize a smaller return than one would expect in a rising market.

Finally, exchange traded commodity contracts like those listed with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group are the actual proxy to which ETF’s and local dealers tie their prices. Possibly the single biggest drawback to these products is their preset size. There are about half a dozen precious metals products listed ranging in full cash value from $18,000 to $125,000. These contracts have various benefits for passive portfolio diversification. First, these are standardized products fully assayed and certified by the appropriate exchange. This assures the investor that their 100 ounces of gold is 24 carat and their silver is .9999 fine and that the value of your holdings can be found 24 hours a day, rather than being quoted by the guy in the shop down the street.  Secondly, there are no incentive fees, advertising costs or administration fees.  The only charge is a one- time commission to your commodity broker, typically, around $50 per contract. Also, you will control the actual metal and not find yourself invested in mining sales or land right options because you didn’t read the prospectus thoroughly.  Finally, the biggest reason exchange traded products are so much more cost effective is the use of margin and the amount of cash it frees up for the individual investor. The $18,000 contract mentioned above requires a cash deposit with the exchange of $1,150. This allows the individual investor to use the remaining $16,850 in excess cash for a money market account and earn interest on top of any return produced in the actual market itself. Therefore, those wishing to follow efficient portfolio theory and diversify their holdings can most efficiently implement this process through the use of commodity futures markets.

This blog is circulated by Andy Waldock.  Andy Waldock is a analyst, broker, asset manager and trader.  Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his relatives in any market reviewed. The blog is meant for educational purposes and to develop a dialogue among those with an interest in the commodity markets. The commodity markets may not be appropriate for all investors due to the high degree of leverage. There is substantial risk in investing in futures.